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Will October 28 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/26

October 28
10%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 10 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
8¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
7¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 6.6% of the time against a 8c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,104 settled markets across all categories in the 0-9c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,714). The price implies 10%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.