Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. Only one outcome can happen here, so the field should sum to about 100%. It currently sums to 14%, a 86-point underround. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
14¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
15¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.6% of the time against a 14c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,532 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,532). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, October 20 at 14¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
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