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Will October 19 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/19

October 19
15%
implied chance of YES
Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.
This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 15 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
15¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
15¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.6% of the time against a 15c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 2,532 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,532). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
See the full field for this event →
More live World markets
Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 19, 2026 to97%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t10%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t87%Will there be more than 50 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 19, 2026 to2%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t13%
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.