What are the current odds for Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)?

Above 9 12%, Above 3 0%, Above 4 0%, Above 5 0%, Above 6 0%. These are live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities.

How do I read these odds?

Each price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens. More than one outcome can occur in this event, so the prices are independent and do not sum to 100%.

Odds boards / World

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Live Kalshi odds · 8 outcomesMultiple can happen

Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 12%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

12¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

15¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 14.6% of the time, and the crowd is charging 12c. Based on 2,532 settled markets across all categories in the 10-19c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 1c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,532). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

Based on the favourite, Above 9 at 12¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.

These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.

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