Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / World

Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t

Above 4

71%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 71 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

71¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

76¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 76.0% of the time, and the crowd is charging 71c. Based on 1,822 settled markets across all categories in the 70-79c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 3c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 70–79¢ have gone on to settle YES 76% of the time (n=1,822). The price implies 71%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live World markets

Will there be more than 100 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 12, 2026 t1%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t2%Will the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz be more t7%Will there be more than 30 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 12, 2026 to7%Will October 14 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/1216%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.