Each price is that outcome’s implied probability. More than one outcome can happen here, so these are independent probabilities and are not meant to sum to 100% (they total 77%). Read each bar on its own. Tap any outcome for its price history and embed.
Priced about right
KALSHI CHARGES
16¢
MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT
15¢
Contracts like this one have settled YES 15.3% of the time against a 16c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 236 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events.
This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.
What history says about this price
Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,443). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.
Based on the favourite, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms at 16¢. Every price band on this board has its own history; the full curve shows them all.
These are live Kalshi event contracts. Each outcome’s price is the market’s implied probability. Whether the market is well-calibrated at each price is measured by our Truth Machine. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading. Not financial advice.
Embed this on your site
<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/event/KXNOBELPEACE-26" width="360" height="240" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/event/KXNOBELPEACE-26">Live odds by ContractTax</a>
Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.
Odds update every few minutes. See more live boards on the odds boards hub or single-market live odds.