What are the odds of "Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 16%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 16% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize?

Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms

16%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 16 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

16¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

15¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 15.3% of the time against a 16c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 236 settled other markets in the 10-19c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 10–19¢ have gone on to settle YES 15% of the time (n=2,443). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Open de España presented by Madrid: Tyrrell Hatton wins5%Open de España presented by Madrid: Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra wins5%Open de España presented by Madrid: Marco Penge wins3%Open de España presented by Madrid: Tom McKibbin wins3%Open de España presented by Madrid: Angel Ayora wins14%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.