Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Crypto

Will the CIF Rotterdam 88.5% APT price (SMM-WU-APT-003) be above $1,750/MTU on Dec 17, 202

Above $1,750/MTU

89%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 89 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

94¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

94¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 93.8% of the time against a 94c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,519 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough crypto history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the crypto curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 80–89¢ have gone on to settle YES 86% of the time (n=1,442). The price implies 89%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Crypto markets

Bitcoin price on Oct 15, 2026?64%Bitcoin price on Oct 15, 2026?97%Bitcoin price on Oct 15, 2026?93%BTC price up in next 15 mins?49%Bitcoin price on Oct 15, 2026?98%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.