Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / World

Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 26, 2026 to

Above 15

98%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 98 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

98¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

94¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-3¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 93.8% of the time, and the crowd is charging 98c. Based on 1,649 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough world history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the world curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,649). The price implies 98%, so historically this band has come in about 4 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live World markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.