What are the odds of "Will the S&P 500 be between 7725 and 7749.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 96%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 96% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the S&P 500 be between 7725 and 7749.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,725 to 7,749.9999

96%

implied chance of YES▲ 87 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 96 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

96¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

89¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-6¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 89.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 96c. Based on 46 settled other markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 89% of the time (n=319). The price implies 96%, so historically this band has come in about 7 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?11%Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 17, 2026 be above 1273.70?29%Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?91%Gold price up in next 15 mins?4%Will James Fishback receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republica22%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXINX-26AUG17H1600-B7737" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will the S&P 500 be between 7725 and 7749.9999 on Aug 17, 2026 at 4pm EDT? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXINX-26AUG17H1600-B7737">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.