What are the odds of "Will the S&P 500 be above 7674.9999 on Oct 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 60%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 60% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the S&P 500 be above 7674.9999 on Oct 1, 2026 at 4pm EDT?

7,675 or above

60%

implied chance of YES

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 60 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

57¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

57¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 56.7% of the time against a 57c price, which is close enough to fair that the 2c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 305 settled other markets in the 50-59c band, priced about a day before their events.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 60–69¢ have gone on to settle YES 65% of the time (n=2,358). The price implies 60%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.