What are the odds of "Who will win the next presidential election?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 1%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 1% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

Who will win the next presidential election?

Brian Kemp

1%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 6% of the time (n=2,017). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 5 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Politics markets

What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in St. Clair County, Michigan originally s5%Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.8 on Oct 24, 2026?69%Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.7 on Oct 24, 2026?5%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally in Macon, Georgia originally scheduled for2%Will there be at least 6 presidential actions in the week of Oct 18, 2026?99%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXPRESPERSON-28-BKEM" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Who will win the next presidential election? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXPRESPERSON-28-BKEM">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.