What are the odds of "Will it rain in Albuquerque on Oct 31, 2026?"?

The live Kalshi market currently prices this at 29%, meaning traders collectively imply about a 29% chance of YES. Prices move continuously as new information arrives.

Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Weather

Will it rain in Albuquerque on Oct 31, 2026?

Albuquerque

29%

implied chance of YES▼ 47 today

Recorded price path

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 29 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be underpricing this

KALSHI CHARGES

31¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

35¢

AFTER THE 2¢ FEE

+2¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 35.1% of the time, and the crowd is charging 31c. Based on 3,423 settled markets across all categories in the 30-39c band (we do not yet hold enough weather history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence). After the 2c taker fee, that leaves about 2c of edge per contract, if this market behaves like the ones we measured.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the weather curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 20–29¢ have gone on to settle YES 26% of the time (n=3,199). The price implies 29%, so historically this band has come in about 3 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Weather markets

Will the temp in New York City be above 43.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 8am EDT?23%Will it rain in Chicago on Nov 1, 2026?28%Will the temp in Miami be above 79.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 8am EDT?19%Will it rain in New Orleans on Nov 1, 2026?41%Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 63.99° on Oct 31, 2026 at 8am EDT?4%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.