Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Politics

Will Democrats hold at least 42 Senate seats after the 2028 election?

At least 42

93%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 93 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

Priced about right

KALSHI CHARGES

93¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

94¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES 93.8% of the time against a 93c price, which is close enough to fair that the 1c fee eats whatever is left. Based on 1,698 settled markets across all categories in the 90-99c band (we do not yet hold enough politics history to price this by category, so this is the market-wide curve and is weaker evidence).

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the politics curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 94% of the time (n=1,698). That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Politics markets

Will Democrats hold at least 265 House seats after the 2028 election?99%Will Democrats hold at least 260 House seats after the 2028 election?99%Will Republicans hold at least 175 House seats after the 2028 election?99%Will Republicans hold at least 180 House seats after the 2028 election?99%Will Democrats hold at least 60 Senate seats after the 2028 election?8%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXSENATESEATSD-29-42" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Democrats hold at least 42 Senate seats after the 2028 election? - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXSENATESEATSD-29-42">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.