Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / Other

Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Aug 13, 2026 be above 1198.50?

Above 1198.50

97%

implied chance of YES

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 97 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

The crowd may be overcharging for this

KALSHI CHARGES

98¢

MARKETS LIKE THIS SETTLED AT

90¢

AFTER THE 1¢ FEE

-7¢

Contracts like this one have settled YES only 90.2% of the time, and the crowd is charging 98c. Based on 41 settled other markets in the 90-99c band, priced about a day before their events. Buying this systematically has been a slow bleed, and the 1c fee makes it worse.

This is what this kind of contract has been worth, not a forecast for this one: a band average does not know what is happening in the news. See the Fair Value Board for every market scored this way, or the other curve it came from.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 90–99¢ have gone on to settle YES 85% of the time (n=199). The price implies 97%, so historically this band has come in about 12 points lower than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live Other markets

Will the S&P 500 be above 7784.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT?97%Will the S&P 500 be above 7779.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT?99%Will the S&P 500 be above 7774.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT?99%Gold price up in next 15 mins?7%Will the S&P 500 be above 7769.9999 on Aug 13, 2026 at 10am EDT?99%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.