Where does this number come from?

It's the live price of the Kalshi event contract, which trades between 1 and 99 cents. A price of 60 cents implies a 60% chance. ContractTax reads the public market price and adds price history and context.

Live odds / World

Will Itamar Ben Gvir become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislativ

Itamar Ben Gvir

1%

implied chance of YES▼ 1 today

Price history builds as our scanner records this market. Check back soon for the path.

This is a live Kalshi event contract. The price, 1 cents, is the market’s implied probability of YES. Whether that number is well-calibrated is its own question: our Truth Machine measures how often markets at each price level actually settle YES. Confirm live prices on Kalshi before trading.

What history says about this price

Across our settled record, markets priced near 0–9¢ have gone on to settle YES 7% of the time (n=2,103). The price implies 1%, so historically this band has come in about 6 points higher than the sticker. That is history, not a forecast for this specific market. See the Truth Machine for the full curve.

See the full field for this event →

More live World markets

Will No one become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislative electio57%Will October 27 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/266%Top Chinese AI Company week of November 2nd?69%Will there be more than 15 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 26, 2026 to98%Will October 28 be the day with the most transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz (10/2614%

Embed this on your site

<iframe src="https://www.contracttax.com/embed/odds/KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-IGVI" width="340" height="160" style="border:0;overflow:hidden" title="Will Itamar Ben Gvir become Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 Israeli legislativ - live odds"></iframe>
<a href="https://www.contracttax.com/odds/KXISRAELPM-26OCT27-IGVI">Live odds by ContractTax</a>

Live-updating, free to use. The widget refreshes on its own; the caption link is appreciated and helps others find the source.

Vet this trade →More live odds

Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. Educational only, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi.