Kalshi runs up/down markets that settle every fifteen minutes on the major coins. Live shows every ladder closing soon with a countdown, current price, and the part no order book gives you: the current settle streak and, from our own history, how often that streak has continued. History is the deeper record, cadence and continuation across every series we track.
These are the fastest markets on the exchange. The streak overlays are history, not a signal, four ups in a row does not owe you a fifth. Size accordingly. Popular coins are listed first. For the hourly markets, which list dozens of strikes at $100 increments, we keep only the genuinely contested strike per window, so strikes far from spot (which almost always resolve the same way) don’t distort the direction record.
Every other site shows you the price. This is what that price has actually done across 130 settled crypto markets we recorded before they closed. The widest gap: contracts priced around 10–19¢ have settled YES 5% of the time, about 10 points less than the price implies.
Settled YES rate per price band, crypto only. Bands with fewer than 30 settled markets are hidden rather than guessed at. This is history, not a forecast for any single ladder. The full curve across every category is the Truth Machine.
More research: the Truth Machine, the Momentum Machine, and the settled-market archive.