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Will the US enter a recession?

Kalshi lists markets on whether the US economy tips into a recession within a given window, resolved to official indicators.

Most active live market
Will there be a recession in 2026? · Starts
11%
implied chance▼ 3 today
Full history & chart →
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How this market works
Recession markets usually settle on a specific, published criterion, often a call by the National Bureau of Economic Research or two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, so the exact resolution source matters as much as the direction. Prices tend to move on jobs reports, GDP releases, and yield-curve shifts.
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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. How well these prices track reality is measured on the Truth Machine. Educational only, not financial advice.