Where will the unemployment rate land?

Markets on the next monthly jobs report and unemployment rate.

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Will above 150000 jobs be added in August 2026? · Above 150,000

7%

implied chance▲ 2 today

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How this market works

Jobs markets settle on the Bureau of Labor Statistics employment report, released the first Friday of most months. The headline unemployment rate and nonfarm payrolls are separate markets that can diverge, so read which one you're trading.

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. How well these prices track reality is measured on the Truth Machine. Educational only, not financial advice.