Will there be a government shutdown?

Markets on whether the federal government shuts down before a funding deadline.

Most active live market

Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contrac · 2

58%

implied chance

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How this market works

Shutdown markets hinge on whether Congress passes funding by a specific date. They spike around continuing-resolution deadlines and often resolve at the last minute, so time-to-deadline and the current negotiating posture drive the price more than polling.

Related live markets

Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contrac21%Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contrac9%Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contrac9%

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Odds reflect the live Kalshi market and move continuously. How well these prices track reality is measured on the Truth Machine. Educational only, not financial advice.