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Kalshi odds / Politics

Politics odds

Political markets are Kalshi's flagship. Because a contract's price is the market's implied probability, these odds are a running, money-backed forecast of who wins and what happens, updated tick by tick as news breaks. Below are the most active political markets, the full-field boards for the big races, and what's moved most in the last day.

Full-field boards
Next German federal election winner?
AfD87%
7 outcomes
Most active politics markets
What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo2%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo97%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo6%▲3What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo95%▲1What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo77%▲2What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo1%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo32%▲18What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo3%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo23%▲2What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo19%▼1Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.6 on Oct 17, 2026?10%What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo89%
Biggest politics moves today
What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo32%▲18What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo83%▼13What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo55%▼13What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo37%▲13What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo75%▲11What will Donald Trump say during Midterm Rally at Dalton, Georgia originally scheduled fo56%▲9
Evergreen questions
Will there be a government shutdown?Where will presidential approval land?Who will control the House after 2026?Who will control the Senate after 2026?
Learn & trade politics
Politics field guide →
The edges, red flags, and how this market family behaves.
How to read Kalshi odds →
Turn prices into implied probabilities and spot the vig.
Odds converter →
Price to implied probability and back, instantly.
Is your edge real? →
Test whether your win rate is skill or variance.
The live Terminal →
The whole board on one screen: movers and settlements.

Common questions

How accurate are Kalshi's political odds?
A Kalshi price is the market's implied probability, so a 60-cent contract means the market gives that outcome roughly a 60% chance. Whether those prices are well-calibrated is measured on our Truth Machine, which compares recorded prices to how markets at each level actually settled.
Can you trade elections on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and offers a range of election and political-outcome contracts. Availability of specific markets varies over time and by regulatory status.

Live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities. Updated regularly. Not financial advice.

Before you trust these prices
How accurate is Kalshi at politics? →
We recorded prices like these before their events settled, and measured what actually happened. That is the difference between a price and a probability, and it is one click away.