Kalshi odds / Politics

Politics odds

Political markets are Kalshi's flagship. Because a contract's price is the market's implied probability, these odds are a running, money-backed forecast of who wins and what happens, updated tick by tick as news breaks. Below are the most active political markets, the full-field boards for the big races, and what's moved most in the last day.

Full-field boards

2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?

J.D. Vance17%

30 outcomes

Who will Trump pardon?

Donald Trump Jr.59%

52 outcomes

Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?

Samuel Alito64%

9 outcomes

How much government spending will Trump cut before his term ends?

At least 500 billion14%

5 outcomes

What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term?

6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals76%

5 outcomes

How many Attorneys General will Trump have?

251%

4 outcomes

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?

Before 203070%

4 outcomes

Most active politics markets

Will Donald Trump endorse Darline Graham Nordone in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race be86%Will Donald Trump endorse No one in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026%Will Donald Trump endorse Russell Fry in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 112%Will Donald Trump endorse Ralph Norman in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11%Will Donald Trump endorse Mark Lynch in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11,1%Above 5.2%41%Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be ex2%Will Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average be above 40.5% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 37%Will the margin of victory for Mark Lamb in the 2026 AZ-05 Republican primary be at least 5%Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be ex18%Will the margin of victory for Mark Lamb in the 2026 AZ-05 Republican primary be between 28%Will the margin of victory for Mark Lamb in the 2026 AZ-05 Republican primary be between 26%

Evergreen questions

Will there be a government shutdown?Where will presidential approval land?Who will control the House after 2026?Who will control the Senate after 2026?

Learn & trade politics

Politics field guide →

The edges, red flags, and how this market family behaves.

How to read Kalshi odds →

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Odds converter →

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Common questions

How accurate are Kalshi's political odds?

A Kalshi price is the market's implied probability, so a 60-cent contract means the market gives that outcome roughly a 60% chance. Whether those prices are well-calibrated is measured on our Truth Machine, which compares recorded prices to how markets at each level actually settled.

Can you trade elections on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and offers a range of election and political-outcome contracts. Availability of specific markets varies over time and by regulatory status.

Live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities. Updated regularly. Not financial advice.

Before you trust these prices

How accurate is Kalshi at politics? →

We recorded prices like these before their events settled, and measured what actually happened. That is the difference between a price and a probability, and it is one click away.