Kalshi odds / Politics

Politics odds

Political markets are Kalshi's flagship. Because a contract's price is the market's implied probability, these odds are a running, money-backed forecast of who wins and what happens, updated tick by tick as news breaks. Below are the most active political markets, the full-field boards for the big races, and what's moved most in the last day.

Full-field boards

Next German federal election winner?

AfD60%

7 outcomes

When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?

Before 203070%

4 outcomes

Most active politics markets

Biggest politics moves today

Will Trump say "Stupid Question" before Sep 7, 2026?99%▲82 Will Trump say "Golf / Golfer / Golfing" before Sep 7, 2026?99%▲31 Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Sep 7, 2026?27%▼14 Will Trump say "Ballroom" before Sep 7, 2026?99%▲9 What will Donald Trump say during RNC Midterm Convention?69%▲9 Will Trump say "Transgender" before Sep 7, 2026?88%▼8

Evergreen questions

Will there be a government shutdown?Where will presidential approval land?Who will control the House after 2026?Who will control the Senate after 2026?

Learn & trade politics

Politics field guide →

The edges, red flags, and how this market family behaves.

How to read Kalshi odds →

Turn prices into implied probabilities and spot the vig.

Odds converter →

Price to implied probability and back, instantly.

Is your edge real? →

Test whether your win rate is skill or variance.

The live Terminal →

The whole board on one screen: movers and settlements.

Common questions

How accurate are Kalshi's political odds?

A Kalshi price is the market's implied probability, so a 60-cent contract means the market gives that outcome roughly a 60% chance. Whether those prices are well-calibrated is measured on our Truth Machine, which compares recorded prices to how markets at each level actually settled.

Can you trade elections on Kalshi?

Yes. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange and offers a range of election and political-outcome contracts. Availability of specific markets varies over time and by regulatory status.

Live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities. Updated regularly. Not financial advice.

Before you trust these prices

How accurate is Kalshi at politics? →

We recorded prices like these before their events settled, and measured what actually happened. That is the difference between a price and a probability, and it is one click away.