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Kalshi odds / Economics

Economics odds

Economic markets turn scheduled data releases into live probabilities: what the next CPI print will be, whether the Fed cuts, where unemployment lands. Because prices move as expectations shift, these boards are a real-time read on what the market expects before the number drops. Here are the most active economic markets and the biggest recent moves.

Full-field boards
US real GDP growth in 2036?
1.6% to 2.0%31%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2035?
2.1% to 2.5%15%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2033?
1.6% to 2.0%23%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2032?
2.1% to 2.5%10%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2030?
2.6% to 3.0%14%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2034?
0.0% or Below16%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2029?
2.1% to 2.5%16%
14 outcomes
US real GDP growth in 2031?
1.6% to 2.0%12%
14 outcomes
Most active economics markets
Will there be exactly 1 Fed rate hike in 2026?25%Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?10%▲3Will there be exactly 2 Fed rate hikes in 2026?67%▼1Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by December 31, 2026?80%Will the brent crude oil close price be above 98.99 USD/Bbl on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM78%▲1Will the rate of core CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in December 2026?84%▲19Will the natural gas close price be above 3.299 USD/MMBtu on October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM E73%▲5Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.8% for the year ending in December 2026?45%Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.9% for the year ending in December 2026?27%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 8, 275%Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Jun 9, 278%Will the Federal Reserve hike rates by June 30, 2027?92%
Biggest economics moves today
Will there be exactly 3 Fed rate hikes in 2026?10%▲3
Evergreen questions
Will the US enter a recession?What will the next inflation report show?Will the Fed cut interest rates?Where will the unemployment rate land?
Learn & trade economics
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The edges, red flags, and how this market family behaves.
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Common questions

Can you bet on the Fed's interest rate decision on Kalshi?
Kalshi offers contracts tied to economic outcomes including Fed rate decisions, inflation readings, and jobs data. Each contract's price is the market's implied probability of that outcome.
How do Kalshi inflation markets work?
They resolve to official releases such as the CPI or PCE report. The market price before release is the implied probability of each threshold, so the board shows what traders collectively expect the number to be.

Live Kalshi prices, read as implied probabilities. Updated regularly. Not financial advice.

Before you trust these prices
How accurate is Kalshi at economics? →
We recorded prices like these before their events settled, and measured what actually happened. That is the difference between a price and a probability, and it is one click away.